Electronic Enthusiasts Network reported (text/Liang Haobin) Recently, it was reported that insiders from the Shenzhen factory of ON Semiconductor, a major automotive chip manufacturer, pointed out that its automotive IGBT orders are full and no longer accepting orders, but it does not rule out that there is a certain percentage of excess orders. Overbooking.
Not long ago, ON Semiconductor experienced a logistics crisis. In April, ON Semiconductor issued a notice saying that due to the impact of the epidemic, its global distribution center in Shanghai was forced to close. The distribution center is responsible for the logistics and distribution of ON Semiconductor's three factories in Shenzhen, Suzhou and Leshan, Sichuan. According to data from market research firm TSR, ON Semiconductor's global market share in the automotive imaging market exceeds 60%, and its share in the automotive perception field exceeds 80%. Its logistics obstruction will undoubtedly affect the production of the automotive industry. Fortunately, on April 25, ON Semiconductor stated that the application for resumption of work at the Shanghai Global Distribution Center had been approved, and logistics was gradually resumed.
However, according to the statistics of Future Electronics, taking ON Semiconductor as an example, in 2022Q2, the delivery period of IBGT is 39-52 weeks, and the delivery period and price continue to rise.
At the same time, the lead time of automotive simulation and power products of another car chip manufacturer NXP is as long as 45-52 weeks, and the lead time of sensor products of ON Semiconductor and NXP is up to 52 weeks, and the price also has an upward trend.
So now it seems that after the logistics problem is solved, the shortage of automotive chips still exists. In the fourth quarter of last year, the car core shortage problem showed signs of improvement for a time, but in 2022, the core shortage problem has once again become a big mountain in front of domestic and foreign car companies.
From the perspective of the terminal, entering 2022, an obvious phenomenon is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall automobile market continues to increase. In November 2021, in the domestic passenger car market sales data released by the China Passenger Car Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 20% for the first time, and this number will continue to increase steadily in 2022. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 21.8% in February, and this figure reached 28.2% in March, setting a new record again.
From the perspective of supply, the further increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles means that the demand for products such as electronic and electronic controls will grow exponentially. In the long run, it will be difficult for supply demand to keep up with demand growth. Since the number of ECUs (Electronic Control Units) currently used in electric vehicles is four to five times that of ordinary fuel vehicles, even if the growth of the entire passenger vehicle market slows down, the increase in the penetration rate of new energy will still provide upstream MCU and power devices. and other suppliers bring huge demand growth.
In terms of chip supply, the current production increase on the manufacturing side is still limited, including the recent suspension of orders for ON Semiconductor's automotive IGBTs, which can also reflect the dilemma of the supply side. The difficulty in supply is not only the problem of international brands. Recently, Xiaobian learned from a domestic automotive chip manufacturer that the current automotive MCU market is also very short. The company's products are in the state of distribution, and the delivery time has been extended by 50%. -55 weeks or so.
The market share of automotive MCUs is mainly dominated by overseas IDM manufacturers, while TSMC accounts for 70% of the automotive MCU foundry. Although domestic substitution has obtained a good development opportunity in the shortage of automotive chips, many domestic automotive MCU manufacturers have relied on this opportunity to gain some market share, but after all, domestic chip manufacturers are mainly Fabless models, more dependent on TSMC's production capacity. Whether TSMC can provide more production capacity for automotive chips, on the one hand, is to alleviate the shortage of automotive chips, and on the other hand, it is the key to whether domestic automotive MCUs can achieve greater development space.
Of course, mainland wafer foundries such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are continuing to expand production. At the same time, SMIC is already OEM for domestic auto chip manufacturers. SMIC will increase its monthly production capacity by 100,000 wafers in 2021. inch, the planned capacity increase in 2022 will be more than that in 2021; Hua Hong Semiconductor started mass production of automotive-grade IGBTs last year. According to data from June last year, Hua Hong Semiconductor has produced more than 10,000 wafers for 12-inch IGBTs.
The expansion progress of traditional automotive chip IDM giants has not kept up with market demand for the time being. The expansion plans of Infineon, ST, ON Semiconductor, etc. may not climb to the planned production capacity until 2023. It is foreseeable that the supply gap of automotive chips may still not be objective within this year.